The MLP Mid-Season Tournament starts Wednesday in Grand Rapids, MI.

All 16 Premier teams will be in action and there is a lot riding on the outcome. In addition to $100,000 in prize money and bragging rights, the tournament awards all important regular season team points to the winner (6 points), second place (4), and third place (2). Because so few points separate the top teams, the tournament could well determine which two teams get the all-important byes in the playoffs.

 

The format is a standard bracket, with the #1 seed (based on team points per game) against the #16 seed, #2 against #15, etc. It is a modified double elimination, with the teams in the consolation bracket limited to a top finish of third place.

Let’s take a look at each first round matchup and try to predict who will make the final four, and who will get the team points.

 

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#1 Dallas vs. #16 New York
This looks like a blowout, a likely 4-0 win for Dallas.

Chance of an upset: Zero

 

#2 St. Louis vs. #15 SoCal
Another likely blowout, although SoCal has been playing with a lot of energy.

Chance of an upset: 1%

 

#3 New Jersey vs. #14 Phoenix
An interesting matchup, in that New Jersey will get to a DreamBreaker more often than Dallas or St. Louis due to not having quite as good depth at doubles. Phoenix is competent at DreamBreakers, so New Jersey needs to be careful in this one and not take Phoenix too lightly. A big question concerns which women will play for Phoenix. Their best chance is to play Jessie Irvine and Alex Walker, but they seem committed to Genie Bouchard. If Bouchard plays, the chance of an upset goes way down. If Irvine plays, she is capable of some very high end play, as we saw when Irvine and Walker defeated Catherine Parenteau and Jade Kawamoto 11-3 at MLP San Clemente.

Chance of an upset: Zero with Bouchard; 50-1 with Irvine

 

#4 Brooklyn vs. #13 Atlanta
Brooklyn just has way too much doubles depth for Atlanta. The only question here concerns the health of the Brooklyn men. Even then, if Pat Smith or AJ Koller fills in, Brooklyn is still a heavy favorite.

Chance of an upset: 40-1

 

#5 Columbus vs. #12 Carolina
Here is by far the most interesting first round matchup. Carolina finally showed some signs of life at MLP New York, scoring 10 team points and winning three matches. On the other hand, they lost to both top five teams they faced, Columbus and Brooklyn. Columbus comes in on a hot streak, having won all five matches in New York and going 19-1 in their doubles matches. Columbus dominated Carolina in New York, winning 4-0. Carolina has improved, but their weak spot continues to be Tammy Emmrich. Emmrich is a battler, but she is overmatched talent-wise against the better teams. Carolina needs to trade for a better #2 woman or they will continue to struggle against top teams. But, a Ben Johns team is always a threat to win two matches and get to a DreamBreaker where anything can happen.

Chance of an upset: 8-1

 

#8 Orlando vs. #9 Utah
This match, as you would expect, has the best chance for an upset. Orlando’s men are better, but Utah’s women are slightly better and Utah is a full effort team that will fight for every point. If Orlando does not play their best game, they will lose.

Chance of an upset: 3-1

 

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Assuming all the favorites win in round one, the second round gets really interesting. Every match from the second round on will be a very tough match up.

 

Dallas vs. Orlando
This is the only match in the second round that looks to have an obvious winner. Orlando will need to win men’s doubles and then scratch out a mixed win to force a DreamBreaker.

Dallas will be a 6-1 favorite.

 

Columbus vs. Brooklyn (Winner to play Dallas/Orlando winner)
This is a classic matchup. Either team is absolutely capable of winning the whole thing, yet one will be sent to the consolation bracket after round two. These teams are very similar. Both have great doubles depth. Columbus is a better DreamBreaker team, but Brooklyn showed their mettle by beating Carolina in a DreamBreaker in New York. Expect four super close and super tough doubles matches in this one. It could easily be the best match to watch in the whole tournament.

I would favor Columbus as a 2-1 favorite.

 

St. Louis vs. Texas
Texas has not been playing particularly well. Trading Etta Tuionetoa for Kaitlyn Christian makes Texas better at DreamBreakers, but weakens them at doubles. St. Louis trots out four tough doubles teams, so Texas’ trade hurts them against St. Louis. For Texas to win, Christian Alshon will have to play a lot better than he has been lately.

St. Louis will be a 5-1 favorite.

 

New Jersey vs. LA
Did I say Columbus vs. Brooklyn was a classic? Well, here is classic number two. Just as Columbus and Brooklyn are similar, New Jersey and LA are very similar, albeit in a different way. New Jersey and LA have some holes in doubles play, but feature the two best DreamBreaker lineups. New Jersey has the best female player on either team in Anna Leigh Waters and the best male in Will Howells. But, New Jersey arguably has the weakest female and male in Meghan Dizon and Zane Navratil, respectively. LA typically needs to win women’s doubles to prevail in a match, but can they beat Waters? They did in Orlando, but beating Waters twice is a tough assignment. This one looks like it could be 2-1 New Jersey, with Navratil and Dizon needing a win to avoid a DreamBreaker. New Jersey would prefer to avoid that scenario, but that means they need to sweep the other three doubles matches. In any event, this should be a very exciting and unpredictable match.

New Jersey goes in as a 3-1 favorite.

 

The semifinals look to be Dallas against Columbus and St. Louis against New Jersey. The two teams that lose will very likely face each other in the third place game in the consolation bracket. I have liked Dallas and St. Louis all year, and I will stay on that train. You have to like Columbus as the hot team with the best chance to break through. Columbus winning the Mid-Season Tournament, but Dallas and St. Louis meeting in the end-of-season championship would not surprise me one bit. Both of these semifinals will be great matchups, as well as the consolation final and the championship final. No team is a lock to get even to the semifinals, much less win it all.

St. Louis over Dallas in the final. Columbus over New Jersey in the third place game.

 

Odds to win it all:
Dallas 3-1, St. Louis 7-2, Columbus 4-1, New Jersey 5-1, Brooklyn 8-1, the field (all other teams put together) 15-1.

Who are you picking?

 

Make sure you watch it all on Pickleballtv.

 

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