Waters’ third gold was in mixed doubles with Johns. Once again, the only word to describe Waters was dominant. Waters/Johns won gold, won every game, and won by an average game score of 11-4.
In summary, Waters did not just win a Triple Crown, she crushed the competition. She played 35 games, won them all, and the opponents got to seven or more points in only four of those 35 games. Think about that for a moment; Waters played 35 games and in 31 of them the opponents could not even get to seven points.
2. Ben Johns is still #1
A popular topic on social media is, and has been for awhile, whether Ben Johns is still the best player, or whether one player or another has caught up to him, or who will be the one to dethrone him as the best player. Whenever another player has a nice run of events, the talk inevitably is whether Johns has lost a step in his game.
Johns’ switch to playing men’s doubles with Gabe Tardio has (or should) conclusively end for now any talk that Johns is relinquishing the #1 spot anytime soon. In men’s singles, we have certainly seen the emergence of such top players as Hunter Johnson and Chris Haworth, and Johns certainly has competition there for the top spot. But pickleball is primarily a doubles game and the crown jewel of pickleball is men’s doubles; men’s doubles is pickleball played at the very highest skill level. Since switching to the Tardio partnership, Johns has been on a roll, winning five PPA tournaments in a row. Johns and Tardio in those tournaments are undefeated against the three other top partnerships that have come to dominate men’s doubles, Daescu/Alshon, Patriquin/Staksrud, and Johnson/Klinger.
What is clear in watching Johns play is that his game is directly tied to his emotional connection to the event and who he is playing with. In MLP, Johns has been less than 100% motivated and it showed in his game and his results. But, playing with Tardio has clearly energized Johns. He is upbeat, he gives full effort, and he is “Sunday Ben”, that locked in player that almost never loses. Johns has always been “Sunday Ben” when playing with Waters; he is now “Sunday Ben” when playing with Tardio. Every other player is now on notice; if they want to win a mixed or men’s doubles gold, they have to get through Johns, no easy task.
3. Men’s singles is crazy competitive
For sheer unpredictability, nothing in pickleball can beat men’s singles. Hunter Johnson has been ranked #1 for awhile, but ever since he achieved that ranking, he has won exactly zero gold medals. Yet, Johnson keeps his #1 ranking because the winners are a rotating series of different opponents. This week, the winner was Chris Haworth, who defeated Christian Alshon 11-8, 12-10. Men’s singles is so competitive that all four quarterfinal and both semifinal matches went three games. Just look at some of the players who lost in the Round of 16: Federico Staksrud, Dylan Frazier, Roscoe Bellamy, Noe Khlif, and Zane Ford. And top players like JW Johnson, Jay Devilliers, and James Ignatowich did not even make it to the Round of 16!
We continue to see that the hardest event to handicap is men’s singles. In any draw, there are upwards of 30-40 players who could legitimately challenge for the top spot.
4. Predictions and Kalshi
Kalshi continues to expand its coverage of pro pickleball, offering odds on all five events at Virginia Beach. I accurately predicted the winners of four of the five events. Men’s singles, as usual, proved to be the elusive one. Our best bets did pretty well. We took Waters early to win singles at 60 cents (to win $1). Our longshot was John Lucian Goins to win men’s singles at 2 cents. He did make the quarters, so that bet could have been profitably sold at that point for about 7 cents. One of the things on Kalshi that is such a good feature is that you can sell your gold medal bet any time before the final, for a profit, so long as your pick has won some matches. Or, you can press your bet and ride it all the way to the end, getting a bigger payoff if your pick wins it all.