The 2026 MLP season moves to New York and the semifinals. Top-seeded New Jersey had their pick of opponent, choosing to play #5 Brooklyn and passing on #6 Dallas. There was no easy choice for New Jersey, as both Brooklyn and Dallas looked good while winning their quarterfinal matches in Newport Beach. We can now look over the matchup, breaking down each pairing and the DreamBreaker lineups.

 

 

This is New Jersey’s strongest game, as they send out Anna Leigh Waters and Jorja Johnson. They are 33-1 this season, with the one famous loss to Anna Bright and Kate Fahey. Brooklyn will counter with Rachel Rohrabacher and Jackie Kawamoto (12-5).

 

Waters and Johnson have been as close to unbeatable as it gets. Bright and Fahey succeeded by targeting Johnson. But that alone does not explain the loss. The key was that Johnson started slow, with a serve return miss and other errors right at the start. That shook her confidence, and while she recovered as the game progressed, because it is just one game to 11, Bright and Fahey were able to close it out before Waters and Johnson could come all the way back. Had it been a best two out of three games, it is not at all clear that the targeting strategy would have prevailed.

 

Expect Rorhabacher and Kawamoto to try the isolation strategy. Waters is so good that keep away is the only logical play. Another good move by Brooklyn would be to throw in a lot of lobs. Kawamoto is an excellent lobber, but she has been playing left side. The best lob is from the right side player at the kitchen line. Rohrabacher is not known to lob much, so if I was Brooklyn, I would put Kawamoto on the right in this matchup. Kawamoto played right side with Rohrabacher earlier in the year, but they switched more recently, as Kawamoto has been the better player lately. Against New Jersey, I want my better player on the right, as if Brooklyn is isolating Johnson, and Johnson will be hitting a lot of crosscourt dinks. I want those going to Kawamoto, as her forehand kitchen game is more versatile due to Kawamoto possessing the much better lob. 

 

Brooklyn is a decided underdog in women’s doubles. Putting Kawamoto on the right, isolating Johnson, with Kawamoto lobbing a lot, is the best play for Brooklyn.

 

 

Men’s doubles will feature Brooklyn sending out Christian Alshon and Riley Newman to face Federico Staksrud and Will Howells. Alshon is playing at his highest level. Newman has been solid. Men’s doubles has been New Jersey’s weakest spot all year. Staksrud has helped a lot. Howells played his best game against Palm Beach in the closing match, but did not play well in the opening match. That has been the story with New Jersey’s men all year, some good, some not so good.

 

Howells and Newman are going to be trading a lot of forehand crosscourt dinks in this one. Howells’ dinks tend to be fairly flat; Newman often hits a cutter. Neither player hits many forcing dinks. So, we will likely see long exchanges, with Staksrud and Alshon looking to poach. Alshon has been effectively speeding up off the bounce on the forehand, while Staksrud tends not to do it much. So, expect the offense to be initiated more by Brooklyn.

 

Brooklyn needs Alshon to play in New York like he played in Newport Beach. If he does, they have the advantage in men’s doubles.

 

 

Now we get to the big unknown. All year, New Jersey has played Waters with Noe Khlif. They were great all during the regular season, albeit with a few shaky comeback wins toward the end. But in Newport Beach, the train ran off the tracks. Palm Beach targeted Khlif, playing keep away from Waters. Khlif was visibly affected by the pressure and did not play well. Palm Beach defeated Waters and Khlif twice. New Jersey was able to win against Palm Beach despite losing twice in mixed #1, but that dog won’t hunt against better teams like Brooklyn.

 

New Jersey faces a tough decision. Do you stick with what worked most of the year? Or do you make a lineup change at this late date? If I was New Jersey, I would definitely bench Khlif. I do not see how they can take a chance with what happened in Newport Beach repeating. I would play Staksrud with Waters and Johnson with Howells. Johnson and Howells were 15-6 this year, so they have experience playing with each other. Waters and Staksrud are great players and would have no problem playing together. New Jersey has to do something to force teams to play Waters. Staksrud is that answer. Avoiding Waters by hitting all the balls to Staksrud is just not a good play.

 

In the end, I believe New Jersey will stick with the status quo and play Waters with Khlif. Again, I think it is a mistake, but rarely does a team have the fortitude to make a tough call and change their strategy this late in the year. If they do what I suggest and play Waters/Staksrud, they would be the favorite against Rohrabacher and Alshon.

 

For Brooklyn, Rohrabacher and Alshon are playing well. Rohrabacher looked to be 100% in Newport Beach. Alshon is covering a lot of court and doing so effectively. If New Jersey plays Khlif, expect Brooklyn to target Khlif all the way. If it is Staksrud, advantage New Jersey; if it is Khlif, I would rate this even.

 

 

Brooklyn will start Riley Newman and Jackie Kawamoto. They have played brilliantly at times. The last game against Columbus, they jumped to an 8-0 lead and looked unbeatable. But the mistakes then came out and Columbus almost came back. Newman and Kawamoto are capable of beating any mixed #2 team. But they are beatable too.

 

For New Jersey, will they stick with Johnson and Staksrud? Or will they move Staksrud to mixed #1 and play Howells with Johnson? If it is Howells/Johnson, I would rate them about even against Newman/Kawamoto. If it is Staksrud/Johnson, then I would make New Jersey a slight favorite.

 

DreamBreaker lineups: a fantastic matchup

 

I think there is a good chance at least one of the New Jersey vs. Brooklyn matches goes to a DreamBreaker. Both teams have solid DreamBreaker lineups.

 

For New Jersey, they have been playing Staskrud, Howells, Waters, and Johnson. They played Howells over Khlif against Palm Beach and Howells responded with the winning points. So, although Khlif is viewed as the slightly better singles player, I expect New Jersey would roll with Howells.

 

Brooklyn uses singles specialists, bringing in Chris Haworth for Newman and Hannah Blatt for Rorhabacher. They place Alshon in the first spot and Kawamoto in the fourth spot.

 

Alshon vs. Staksrud is dead even, two great players. Haworth has an advantage over Khlif or Howells. However, it is notable that Haworth is only 57-53 in DreamBreaker points this year. His style, which is to play about 75% of the points exclusively from the baseline, works very well in two games out of three matches. Haworth wears down opponents over the course of two or three full games. But, in a DreamBreaker, playing only four points at a time, a “rush the kitchen” style is more effective. By coming in to the kitchen line first, you can win the point with an effective volley or an opponent miss. Staying back and hitting great groundstrokes works well for Haworth over time, but just is not as effective in DreamBreakers.

 

Waters is a huge favorite over Blatt. Blatt cannot hang back, as Waters’ groundstrokes are just too good. She will need to rush the net, hoping for a Waters’ miss. Blatt getting one or two points per rotation is the best she can hope for.

 

Johnson against Kawamoto is the interesting matchup. Johnson is a solid singles player, while Kawamoto plays no singles outside of a DreamBreaker. But, Kawamoto is one of the smartest players out there, and she always seems to find a way to win key points. She does not have the hardest or best groundstrokes or the strongest volleys, but she makes up for it with intelligence and placement.

 

You have to give the DreamBreaker edge to New Jersey. But, anything can happen. Alshon and Haworth need to get a 6-2 rotation, Blatt needs to hang in there and not get swept, and then Kawamoto needs some of her usual magic to give Brooklyn a shot.

 

Who will win? In the end, New Jersey is the stronger team. The big question is whether New Jersey will play up to their talent level. If they do, they will win. But, as we saw at Newport Beach, New Jersey can go off the rails with mental mistakes. Brooklyn needs an MVP-level performance from Alshon, some errors by New Jersey, and a little Kawamoto magic in the clutch. In the end, I like New Jersey to win 3-1 and 3-2.

 

It all starts Friday, August 28 in New York City. Watch it all on Pickleballtv!

 

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