The 2026 MLP regular season closes out in Orlando this week, and the race both for the #1 seed and the last couple of playoff spots are on the line. Powerhouses St. Louis and New Jersey are both in action, with the #1 seed going to whichever team does better in Orlando. Meanwhile, we have a wild six-team fight for three playoff spots, with five of the six teams playing in Orlando. The standings could not be any closer. Let’s sort out where every team stands and try to figure out what might happen in Orlando.

 

 

MLP Orlando will feature two groups, each with six teams. Group A has St. Louis, Brooklyn, Orlando, Las Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix. Group B has New Jersey, LA, Palm Beach, California, Chicago, and Carolina. The #1 seed is on the line. The top seed is important, as that team will control all choices in the playoffs; which opponent to play, which doubles teams to match up against, etc. The determining factor is really simple: St. Louis vs. New Jersey, whichever team does better in Orlando gets the #1 seed. If they both win their groups, as expected, the winner on Super Sunday gets the #1 seed.

 

 

LA and Brooklyn cannot get the top seed, but both have a lot to play for in Orlando. LA currently sits in 5th place with 71 points. LA will definitely pass #4 Dallas, which is idle. LA wants at least a third place finish in Orlando, which would get them ahead of Columbus. At the same time, Brooklyn will be fighting for the same turf. Brooklyn is in 6th place with 66 points. Barring a complete collapse, Brooklyn will pass Dallas for a top five spot. Brooklyn can pass Columbus by winning its group; it is a tough task, as Brooklyn would have to beat St. Louis in group play. If LA and Brooklyn both finish second in their groups, LA would finish third overall in the regular season, with Columbus fourth and Brooklyn fifth. That is the most likely scenario, but nothing is for sure, and LA and Brooklyn both have a lot on the line. A fifth place finish means no first round bye.

 

For Palm Beach, they are going to be the seventh or eighth seed. Palm Beach needs to finish seventh or higher in Orlando to pass Texas for the seventh seed in the playoffs. That means Palm Beach needs to finish fourth or better in Group B. Group B is very tough, so Palm Beach will need their best stuff in Orlando. The seventh seed would allow Palm Beach to pick their opponent in the first round of the playoffs; the eighth seed has no choice of opponent.

 

 

Atlanta played well at MLP Chicago and netted enough standings points to sit in ninth place with 36 points. While it is mathematically possible for four teams to get enough points in Orlando to knock Atlanta down to 13th place and out of the playoffs, it only happens if St. Louis, New Jersey, LA, and Brooklyn all collapse, so I wouldn’t worry if I was Atlanta.

 

The six teams realistically fighting for the final three spots are SoCal (34 points), California (30), Chicago (27), Las Vegas (26), Orlando (25), and Miami (20). All of these teams are playing at MLP Orlando, except SoCal. There are many scenarios for the finish at MLP Orlando, but let’s break it down for each of the six contenders for those last three spots.

 

SoCal will make it unless Las Vegas or Orlando finishes third in their group and wins on Sunday, and Chicago finishes third in their group, and California finishes fourth in their group and wins on Sunday. Complicated? Yes. Impossible? No. SoCal’s playoff hopes really come down to Palm Beach. So long as Palm Beach defeats California or Chicago and finishes ahead of them in group play, SoCal will make the playoffs. Chances to make the playoffs: 98%

 

California’s easiest road to a playoff spot is to finish ahead of Chicago (and Carolina) in group play. If they do that, they are in. If California loses to Chicago, then California needs help in Group A. They would need Miami or Phoenix to finish ahead of Las Vegas and Orlando (assuming St. Louis and Brooklyn finish first and second). California is in trouble if they lose to Chicago in group play and Las Vegas or Orlando finishes third in their group. Chances to make the playoffs: 60%

 

Chicago’s chances are the other side of the coin from California. Chicago needs to finish ahead of California (and Carolina). If Chicago does that, they are in. If Chicago finishes behind California and in fifth place in group play, then they need a lot of help in Group A. They would need Phoenix to finish third in Group A. Not going to happen. So, Chicago’s chances really come down to beating California in group play. That California vs. Chicago group play match is almost a playoff qualifier. Chances to make the playoffs: 40%

 

Las Vegas is in Group A, the easier group. They trail California and Chicago in points, but because they are in the easier group, their path to the playoffs is easier. If Las Vegas finishes third in their group, they are in. They would need wins over Orlando, Miami, and Phoenix to get third (or possibly lose one of those but win a tiebreaker that determines group finish). If Las Vegas finishes fourth in their group, they can still make it with a win on Sunday or if Chicago finishes fifth in their group. Chances to make the playoffs: 65%

 

Orlando’s chances are very similar to those of Las Vegas. Again, a third place finish in Group A and Orlando is in. Like Las Vegas, Orlando can also make it with a fourth place finish in their group and a win on Sunday or if Chicago finishes fifth in their group. Chances to make the playoffs: 33%

 

Miami is the longshot of the group. Miami has to finish third in their group to have any chance of making the playoffs. For a team that appeared to have no shot just a week ago, that is pretty good. If Miami can finish third in their group, they would need to also win on Sunday to get 10 standings points. Then, they would also need Chicago to finish fifth in their group. But that is not all. Miami would also need Phoenix to finish fourth in Group A or Orlando to finish fourth and lose on Sunday or Las Vegas to finish fourth and lose on Sunday AND for Miami to then win the tiebreaker for the 12th and last playoff spot! Chances to make the playoffs: 2%

 

 

Everyone is expecting a St. Louis vs. New Jersey final; why should I be any different? St. Louis is playing the best of anyone, so you have to like their chances to win it all. But New Jersey was good before they added Federico Staksrud. I do think New Jersey needs some time to gel, so St. Louis may win this round, but the playoffs could well lead to a different result.

 

Brooklyn vs. LA would be a very fun second place battle on Sunday, although neither team would be playing for anything at that point, so we could well see both teams rest some starters.

 

In the battle for the last playoff spots, that is going to be some exciting pickleball. The pressure of a team competition is completely different from regular tournament play. We see that every time the Ryder Cup happens in golf. Not everyone can handle the pressure that comes from not wanting to disappoint teammates. The California vs. Chicago match is on Saturday and is essentially a playoff elimination match. While there are scenarios where the loser of that match can make the playoffs, the most likely result is the winner is in and the loser is out. Expect to see a very high intensity match.

 

Miami is going to play free and easy and definitely will play spoiler. While I do not expect them to finish third in their group, watch for Miami to upset Las Vegas or Orlando and spoil their playoff chances.

 

Orlando traded Staksrud, so I expect them to miss the playoffs. Las Vegas is in good position, but they still have to execute.

 

In the end, I expect the last three spots to go to SoCal, California, and Las Vegas. But it is going to be a wild finish and a fun one to watch.

 

See it all on Pickleballtv beginning Thursday.

 

Follow me on X @pickleball_jim for updates.