The favorites went four for four in the first round of the MLP playoffs. Now, we move on to the quarterfinals, and it may be time for the underdogs to have their day. We have four matchups to look at, and at least two of them look to be coin flips.

 

 

Top-seeded New Jersey comes in to Newport Beach full of confidence with their big victory over St. Louis in the regular season ending match at MLP Orlando. Anna Leigh Waters leads the way with a league-best 60-4 record. She went 31-1 in women’s doubles alongside Jorja Johnson. The women’s duo is almost a lock to provide their team with a 1-0 advantage every match. That is a huge leg up in every match, allowing their teammates to play more freely.

 

The men’s doubles team has been the weakest link in a very strong New Jersey team. That is why they traded for Federico Staksrud. Staksrud had been wasting away in Orlando, clearly disinterested in what was, at best, a marginal playoff team. He had been rejuvenated by the trade, clearly playing with enthusiasm now. Staksrud is 3-2 in men’s doubles (next to Will Howells) and 5-1 in mixed doubles (with Johnson).

 

Their last pair, Waters and Noe Khlif in mixed doubles, went 29-3 this season. Obviously, the strengths for New Jersey are in the two games Waters plays. New Jersey looks to get by in men’s doubles, and then counts on their very strong mixed #2 to close things out.

 

Palm Beach has gone through some changes. The steady part is their women’s doubles team of Tina Pisnik/Sofia Sewing. They started the year near unbeatable after cooling off lately. They finished 26-7, but struggled some in the first round of the playoffs. The men’s side has been the weakness for Palm Beach. None of their men have played like top 20 players. Dekel Bar and Tyson McGuffin were 8-13. McGuffin was benched for the first round of the playoffs, and Bar/Casey Diamond only went 3-3. 

 

In mixed, the normally strong PPA pairing of Bar/Pisnik could only go 16-10; good, but not great. In mixed two, Sewing was 20-11, about half with McGuffin and half with Diamond.

 

New Jersey and Palm Beach met once in the regular season, with New Jersey winning 3-1. New Jersey is a big favorite in this one. Palm Beach’s strengths, women’s doubles and mixed #1, play straight into New Jersey’s strengths with Waters on the court. Staksrud firms up the men’s doubles pairing for New Jersey. This one looks like a mismatch. You have to like New Jersey, even to the point of wondering if Palm Beach can win any games at all. But, Brooklyn vs. SoCal looked like that kind of mismatch last week, and SoCal gave Brooklyn all they could handle, so you never know.

 

 

 

New Jersey passed on the lower-seeded Texas team, a smart choice considering where Texas is strong. New Jersey is most vulnerable to a team with strong male players and a strong DreamBreaker squad. St. Louis is built differently, so this matchup is not as good for Texas.

 

St. Louis’ best duo is in men’s doubles, with Gabe Tardio/Hayden Patriquin going 29-3. This, unfortunately for Texas, is also their best duo of Eric Oncins/Nico Acevedo. Oncins/Acevedo would be favorites over many teams, but not St. Louis.

 

On the women’s side, Anna Bright and Kate Fahey were also 29-3. They will have a decided advantage over Lea Jansen and Kaitlyn Christian, who were a respectable 12-5.

 

In mixed, St. Louis rolls out two great teams. Texas might want to try placing Oncins/Jansen second to try and avoid Patriquin/Bright. The best strategy for Texas is to try to get to a DreamBreaker. A 3-1 or 4-0 Texas win looks highly improbable. But, if Texas can get to a DreamBreaker, they do have a formidable singles lineup led by the best women’s singles duo of Jansen/Christian. Texas crushed Atlanta twice in DreamBreakers in Dallas. Expect St. Louis to know this, and as the higher seed, they can set the lineups as they see fit. If they are smart, they will play Bright/Patriquin against Oncins/Jansen if the score is 1-1, but against Acevedo/Christian if the score is 2-0.

 

In the end, St. Louis just looks too deep for Texas to handle.

 

 

 

Unlike the first two matchups, this one looks very close on paper. The teams played twice before the playoffs, with each team winning once. Dallas, in particular, has been playing as well as any team lately.

 

LA is, of course, led by Ben Johns. They look for him to win both his matches. He was 26-6 with Max Freeman and 24-7 with Jade Kawamoto. Both respectable, but not overwhelming.  The weak points for LA have been the vulnerability of their women’s doubles team and their #2 mixed team. Catherine Parenteau and Jade Kawamoto fell from 25-10 in 2025 to 19-13 this year. They struggled against the very good teams. In mixed #2, Parenteau/Freeman were 11-13, prompting LA to trade for Connor Garnett to sub in for Freeman in mixed. Parenteau/Garnett were 3-2. The one big question is, if Freeman’s mixed record showed he was a weak spot, why not put Garnett in for men’s doubles too? When Johns is on, he covers 80% of the court, so he will have a very good record next to anyone. Could that 26-6 record with Freeman be improved next to Garnett? We will not know, as LA appears set in their lineup ways.

 

On the Dallas side, JW Johnson has been playing at an MVP level. He was 24-10 with Augie Ge and 21-10 with Brooke Buckner. The #2 mixed pair of Ge and Danni-Elle Townsend was an impressive 17-3. The weak spot was women’s doubles, with Townsend and Alix Truong only managing a 13-11 record.

 

Interestingly, this matchup will be strength on strength, weakness (relatively speaking) on weakness. Neither women’s doubles team is elite. The top man on each team is their best player. Dallas has an advantage at mixed #2, but will they get there, or can LA exploit their small advantages in gender doubles and mixed #1 to get ahead 3-0?

 

If it goes to a DreamBreaker, LA would appear to have a slight but noticeable advantage. The men’s one-two punch of Johns/Garnett is elite. The women’s matchup if fairly even, maybe a slight edge to Dallas.

 

This matchup could easily need to go all three to be decided. LA needs Johns on his best behavior to pull this one out. If he tries 100%, you have to like LA. But not by much.

 

 

 

 

 

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Anyone have a coin handy? We may need it to decide what on paper is far and away the closest matchup in Newport. The teams did not play each other all year, so we have a completely clean slate.

 

Columbus, after trading for Tyra Black, looked super strong on paper. The lineup of Black, Parris Todd, Andrei Daescu, and CJ Klinger looked top shelf. But, they did not play all that great together so far.

 

Deascu/Klinger were 22-11. Daescu/Todd, 15-6. Black/Todd, 14-3. Black/Klinger, 10-4. Good numbers, although the men’s doubles record was weaker than you would expect.

 

For Brooklyn, Riley Newman/Christian Alshon were 20-3 to lead their team. Alshon and Rachel Rohrabacher were 18-4. Newman/Jackie Kawamoto were 12-6, and Kawamoto/Rorhabacher came in at 10-4. 

 

The problem for Brooklyn is Rohrabacher’s health. In a post-match interview at Dallas, she said she “was still in a lot of pain.” She has not been playing women’s doubles, and has not looked 100% in playing mixed doubles. Alshon, on the other hand, has been playing as well as anyone. He was great at Dallas.

 

This matchup comes down to Rorhabacher’s health. If she is less than 100%, Brooklyn is in some trouble. If she is 100%, then women’s doubles becomes a coin flip, and anything can happen.

 

In DreamBreakers, Brooklyn has the advantage on the men’s side, while Columbus has the advantage on the women’s side. Interestingly, Brooklyn puts in world singles #1 Chris Haworth, but Haworth has only been 50-50 in winning DreamBreaker points in 2026.

 

Slight edge to Columbus, but watch to see how Rohrabacher looks. If she is not fully healthy, or is rusty from not playing enough lately, Columbus would have a bigger edge.

 

 

You have to like New Jersey and St. Louis to win 2-0. They are just too deep, with elite players all around.

 

For the other two matches, look for everything to be close. Close games, close matches, close DreamBreakers. I favor LA and Columbus, but probably 2-1. The Columbus vs. Brooklyn one should be even closer if Rohrabacher is 100%, or could go more to Columbus if Hannah Blatt has to play and/or Rohrabacher is not herself.

 

The action begins Friday, August 14. Watch it all on Pickleballtv.

 

Follow me for updates on X @pickleball_jim.