The Vulcan MLP Playoffs move to Orlando, beginning November 22. The final four teams will all be in action. In one semifinal, New Jersey takes on Texas, while in the other semifinal, St. Louis faces off against Dallas. These four teams were the strongest all year and deserve to be here. All of them have a realistic chance to win it all.

Let’s take a deep dive on both semifinal matchups, and analyze what each team needs to do to win. The winners of the two semifinals will then meet on Sunday, November 24 in a best two of three final.

 

 

New Jersey and Texas met twice in the regular season. New Jersey won both times, once 3-2 in a Dreambreaker, and 3-1 in the other matchup.

 

Top seed New Jersey will send out Anna Leigh Waters and Mari Humberg in women’s doubles. They will play the Texas duo of Etta Wright and Tina Pisnik. New Jersey, as the top seed, controls all choices in the first two matches of this best of three competition. If the teams tie 1-1, we will play a third match and that match will revert back to a coin toss, just like in the regular season.

 

New Jersey will send out women’s doubles first. New Jersey is built on Dreambreaker superiority. New Jersey would obviously like to win 3-0 or 3-1, but New Jersey’s strategy is built on maximizing their chances to win at least two of the four doubles matches; New Jersey is fine playing the odds and giving up some chance to win 3-1 if they also reduce the opponent’s chance to win 3-1. New Jersey does everything they can to get two points and they are then happy to play a Dreambreaker. New Jersey was 6-0 in regular season Dreambreakers, so they will no doubt pursue the same strategy in the playoffs they used in the regular season.

 

 

New Jersey looks to start fast and win women’s doubles, to take a 1-0 lead. Waters/Humberg will be a big favorite to defeat Wright/Pisnik. Waters/Humberg defeated Wright/Pisnik in both regular season matchups, and fairly easily. The key when playing against Waters in women’s doubles is to play fast, play aggressive and attack her partner at every opportunity. Anna Bright and Rachel Rohrabacher have shown this to be the correct strategy in each of their wins over Waters and Catherine Parenteau in PPA events. By playing fast and attacking Waters’ partner, it keeps the ball away from Waters, and prevents poaching. The fewer balls Waters hits, the better are your chances of defeating her. The problem for Texas is that a fast, aggressive game does not fit the style of Wright/Pisnik. Wright/Pisnik will try to play a more traditional game of drops and dinks. This is a losing strategy against a Waters team as she will get more balls and be able to control the tempo. Can Wright/Pisnik make the adjustment? I’m doubtful.

 

In men’s doubles, New Jersey’s Zane Navratil and Will Howells will take on the Texas team of Christian Alshon and Quang Duong. Alshon/Duong won this matchup the only time Alshon faced New Jersey. Navratil/Howells have played very well all year, but Alshon/Duong should be too strong for them.

 

Going to mixed, look for New Jersey to choose to begin with a Humberg/Navratil v Alshon/Wright match. Again, what New Jersey is looking to do, if the match is 1-1, is to just win one of the two mixed matches and get to a Dreambreaker. So, I expect New Jersey to play their #2 mixed team against Texas #1 mixed team, allowing New Jersey’s #1 mixed team to play Texas’ weaker #2 mixed team. Alshon/Wright should win this mixed match.

 

 

New Jersey would then close with Waters/Howells v Pisnik/Duong. This is a very favorable matchup for New Jersey, and they want to get a second win and a Dreambreaker opportunity. If Navratil/Humberg should get a win, all the better and New Jersey looks to close it out 3-1.

 

I could see New Jersey leading with Waters/Howells v Duong/Pisnik. The strategy there would be to try to take a 2-1 lead and then Humberg/Navratil are essentially on a freeroll; if they win, New Jersey wins 3-1, but if they lose, it just goes to a Dreambreaker.

 

In a Dreambreaker, New Jersey has the big advantage on the women’s side. Neither Wright nor Pisnik is special at singles. Waters is obviously tremendous and Humberg is a good singles player. On the men’s side, Duong and Alshon are better than Navratil and Howells. Duong and Alshon are capable of establishing a solid lead; it would then be up to Wright/Pisnik to be competitive. If Texas can get through two Dreambreaker rotations and be leading or at least close (15-17 or better) Duong and Alshon could close it out in the third rotation before Waters can take the court. Texas needs to win 21-19 or 21-18. If it gets beyond 40 total points, Waters gets to take the court in the third singles rotation and New Jersey becomes a heavy favorite.

 

The big unknown in this match is the health of the Texas players. Alshon in particular has had health issues in 2024. If Texas is 100%, this is a good matchup; if Alshon is not 100%, New Jersey will roll. My prediction is New Jersey wins 2-1, with the teams splitting Dreambreaker  wins, and New Jersey winning the deciding match 3-1.

 

 

It doesn’t get any better than this St. Louis v Dallas match. Both are very strong teams. Both send out four strong doubles teams. Both are deep at singles play for Dreambreakers. They met three times in the regular season, with St. Louis winning twice. St. Louis won 3-1 and 3-2, while Dallas won 3-1.

 

St. Louis is the higher seed and thus will control the action in the first two matches. It will be interesting to see whether St. Louis plays to try to win 3-1 or to play it safe and increase the chance to go to a Dreambreaker.

 

I expect St. Louis to lead with women’s doubles, Anna Bright/Kate Fahey against Jorja Johnson/Tyra Black. Bright/Fahey were 2-1 in this matchup in the regular season. The Dallas men, JW Johnson/Augie Ge, had a 2-1 advantage over Hayden Patriquin/Gabe Tardio.

 

 

If St. Louis is down 0-2 after gender doubles, I would expect them to play their #1 team (Bright/Patriquin) against the Johnsons. The reason is that St. Louis would need to win both mixed matches, so they need to beat the Johnsons. If the score after gender doubles is 2-0 favor of St. Louis or 1-1, then I expect St. Louis will just try to focus strongly on winning one of the two mixed matches. Thus, I expect St. Louis to send out Fahey/Tardio against the Johnsons, allowing Bright/Patriquin to play against Ge/Black, the Dallas #2 team. St. Louis has to do everything they can to avoid losing 3-1. St. Louis will be fine taking their chances in a Dreambreaker.

 

If any match does go to a Dreambreaker, these teams are very evenly matched. JW Johnson and Augie Ge are probably slightly better at singles than Patriquin/Tardio, but Fahey/Bright are slightly better than Jorja Johnson/Black.

 

The wild card in this matchup is the consistency of the Dallas players. All four of the Dallas players have at times played brilliantly. Unfortunately, each of them has also played poorly at times. When Dallas is playing well, they are the best team, and are capable of beating St. Louis 3-1, 3-1, or even 3-0, 3-0. We saw that on display in the quarterfinals where Dallas lost the first match to New York but then reeled off six straight doubles wins, and 3-0, 3-0 match wins.

 

 

I picked Dallas at the start of the year to win it all, so I have to stay with my pick. I see St. Louis winning one match in a Dreambreaker, but Dallas winning two matches by a 3-1 score to reach the finals.

 

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The Finals: Dallas v New Jersey

No matter which of the four teams make the finals, the finals will be a tremendous matchup. I have Dallas winning it 2-1, defeating New Jersey in a third match Dreambreaker. Wouldn’t that be an epic ending?

 

Whoever you are rooting for, and whoever wins, the final playoff weekend of MLP will be an incredible event. Pickleballtv will have all the action. Tune in beginning Friday, November 22, at 4pm EST; I know I will be watching every match.

 

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