Analyzing the MLP Challenger semifinals and finals
This week’s Vulcan MLP Playoffs at the USTA National Campus in Orlando, FL will put a bow on what has been an exhilarating 2024 MLP season.’
The event—running Friday through Sunday—will feature the top four teams at each level squaring off in the semifinals, with the victors advancing to Sunday’s championship round.
Like the opening playoff event in Dallas in early November, each matchup will be played as a best two out of three series. The only exception are the third-place matchups, which will be a single match played on Sunday.
You can find a full breakdown of the Premier matchups here, since this article will focus only on the Challenger matchups from here on out.
Let’s get into it.
Semifinal Matchup 1: No. 1 Chicago Slice v. No. 4 Atlanta Bouncers
Rosters:
- Chicago: Jack Munro, Wyatt Stone (filling in for Brendon Long), Megan Fudge, Allison Harris
- Atlanta: Anderson Scarpa (filling in for Jaume Martinez Vich), Todd Fought, Susannah Barr, Emily Cederquist
Setting the stage:
Atlanta defeated the Las Vegas Night Owls in the quarterfinals, while Chicago had a bye straight to the semis after finishing the regular season at the top of the standings.
Neither team will be at full strength this weekend, however.
The Slice will be without their fourth-round pick in Long, while the Bouncers will be without their first-round pick in Martinez Vich.
Wyatt Stone will fill in for Chicago, meaning that he’ll join forces with Munro in men’s doubles and (most likely) Harris in mixed doubles.
Anderson Scarpa will do the same for Atlanta, competing alongside Fought in men’s doubles and, presumably, Barr in mixed doubles.
Scarpa has the more experience of the two subs this year, having competed for the Night Owls for two events and filled in for the Texas Ranchers and New York Hustlers at the Premier level. Stone filled in for the Frisco Pandas at the Mid-Season Tournament back in July.
Chicago and Atlanta have squared off twice so far this season, with each squad winning once in a DreamBreaker.
Obviously, though, the teams will look considerably different this time round.
What to watch for: Can Atlanta’s mixed doubles prowess continue?
Since adding Barr and Cederquist during Waiver Period 2, mixed doubles has become one of the Bouncers’ greatest strengths.
Notably, Barr/Martinez Vich are 14-0 together as a partnership.
With no Martinez Vich now, Scarpa will most likely pair up with Barr, since Cederquist/Fought have played together for the latter half of the season.
Cederquist/Fought are just 2-5 in their last seven matches together, though, so there’s a case to put Fought with Barr and have Scarpa play with Cederquist.
These decisions will be crucial, especially because Chicago will react to Atlanta’s mixed doubles pairings for at least the first two matches of the series as the higher-seeded team.
My prediction: This one is truly a toss-up in my eyes because of the roster modifications on each side, but I expect Chicago to advance to the final. I wouldn’t be surprised to see most of these matches go to a DreamBreaker, where I think Fudge will shine as the X-factor and propel the Slice into the finals.
Semifinal Matchup 2: No. 2 SoCal Hard Eights v. No. 3 Miami Pickleball Club
Rosters:
- SoCal: Erik Lange, Max Manthou, Irina Tereschenko, Yana Newell
- Miami: Noe Khlif, Eric Oncins, Milan Rane, Bobbi Oshiro
Setting the stage
Miami defeated the Frisco Pandas in the quarterfinals to advance to Orlando, while SoCal had a first-round bye after finishing as the No. 2 seed in the standings.
The Hard Eights have won two out of the three matches they have played against Miami.
Miami won the first matchup at MLP Atlanta back in May, but SoCal has won both meetings since adding Yana Newell during Waiver Period 1.
One of those wins came via a DreamBreaker in the third-place match at the Mid-Season Tournament, while the other was a 3-1 triumph in Virginia Beach.
Despite Miami’s relative struggles against SoCal, the team’s prospects have been bolstered by the addition of Noe Khlif and Bobbi Oshiro during Waiver Period 1. They have played well together in mixed doubles to the tune of a 9-6 record and will both need to be sharp if Miami wants to turn the tide against SoCal this weekend.
With neither team in the other semifinal matchup at full strength, I believe that this matchup will serve as the de facto championship match at the Challenger level.
What to watch for: Gender doubles a strength for the Hard Eights
SoCal has dominated the gender doubles matchups in the last two meetings between these teams, going a combined 4-0 in those games.
Most notably, Lange/Manthou beat Khlif/Oncins 25-10 the last time they faced off in Virginia Beach.
Those results, if they continue, will put a lot of pressure on both of Miami’s mixed doubles pairings to win just to force a DreamBreaker.
It will be interesting to see if SoCal’s gender doubles duos of Tereschenko/Newell and Lange/Manthou will continue to give the Hard Eights the upper hand early on in these matches.
My prediction: Miami advances to the final to face Chicago. I give them a slight edge in both mixed doubles matchups, and I expect them to pick up some key victories from Rane/Oshiro and Khlif/Oncins in gender doubles. Even though they lost the last DreamBreaker they played against SoCal, I think Khlif and Oshiro will propel them to a win if it comes down to singles.
The Finals: No. 1 Chicago Slice v. No. 3 Miami Pickleball Club
My prediction: Miami defeats a short-handed Chicago team to claim the Challenger title. I don’t think the Slice will be able to win in regulation against Miami with their current roster, and I give a large DreamBreaker advantage to Miami.
Action starts at 4:00 p.m. ET on Friday on Pickleballtv and the MLP YouTube. You’re not gonna want to miss it.
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