The 2024 MLP Premier playoffs start Saturday. Dallas will play New York, while DC faces Texas. Each matchup is best two of three matches. The first match for both is on Saturday, with the second on Sunday. If necessary, the third match will be later on Sunday. Winners move on, the losers go home. So with everything on the line, let’s examine all of the matchups and try to predict a couple of winners.

 

 

Dallas finished third in the regular season. They therefore had their choice of facing New York or Texas. As expected, they picked New York, even though Dallas was 3-0 against Texas in the regular season. 

 

Dallas, as the higher seed, gets to choose which doubles matches to start with. I expect Dallas to lead with men’s doubles, as the New York women have been the strength of that team. In men’s doubles, JW Johnson and Augie Ge will face off against Jack Sock and CJ Klinger. In the regular season, Johnson was 5th overall with a record of 33-13. Ge was 15th, with a record of 27-19. Klinger was 17-25, good for 37th place. Sock was 16-30, and was near the bottom of the MLP player standings at 47th. Klinger played better than his record; Sock was the weakest player on either team in the regular season. This matchup comes down to whether Sock can elevate his play enough. Advantage clearly to Dallas.

 

 

In women’s doubles, Dallas has #4 ranked Jorja Johnson, 32-14 in the regular season, and Tyra Black, #16 at 26-20, going against New York’s Lea Jansen #30 at 24-22, and #23 Jackie Kawamoto at 22-20. This will be a much closer match than the statistics might indicate. Jansen and Kawamoto have been clutch for New York all year. I would rate this match as a tossup.

 

In mixed doubles, the Johnsons pair up, and Ge/Black, with Sock/Jansen and Klinger/Kawamoto. Sock again has been the weak link, but he has experience playing with Jansen both at MLP and in PPA events. I think Dallas will choose to have the Johnsons play Sock/Jansen, as I believe Jorja Johnson can handle Sock’s power better than Black can. I believe that allows JW to then dominate that matchup. I would rate the Johnsons as solid favorites in their match and then the other match as a tossup.

 

 

In summary, I see Dallas as favorites in two matches and the other two as tossups. That gives us a 3-1 win for Dallas or a chance for New York to get to a Dreambreaker. In a Dreambreaker, the teams are very evenly matched. Johnson v Sock (slight edge to Dallas), Ge v Klinger (even), Jorja v Jansen (slight edge to NY), and Black v Kawamoto (slight edge to Dallas).

 

Prediction: Slight edge to Dallas and they win 2-1.

 

DC v Texas

This is a great matchup. DC finished 4th, ahead of Texas, so DC will get to choose the doubles matchups.

 

I think DC will lead with women’s doubles. DC sends out #9 Rachel Rohrabacher, 32-14 on the season, along with Vivian Glozman, #25, at 16-12. Facing them will be #12 Tina Pisnik, 28-18, and #17 Etta Wright at 25-19. Wright is better than her record indicates. Glozman sometimes has issues in high pressure matches and can make some mistakes.  I expect Pisnik and Wright to be very steady and rate them as favorites. But, Rohrabacher and Glozman will play a power game and they have a solid chance to run over Wright/Pisnik if Wright/Pisnik just play a soft/reset game instead of counterattacking.

 

In men’s doubles, DC has #30 James Ignatowich at 23-19, and Dekel Bar, #32 at 21-25. They will face #10 Christian Alshon at 17-9, and Quang Duong, #19 at 19-19. Ignatowich has been a disappointment as a first round pick, while Alshon has played very well but has missed a lot of time. Doung was the best pickup of 2024, but has not faced too many pressure situations like this one. Alshon and Duong should be very solid favorites, if Alshon is healthy and Duong is not negatively affected by the pressure.  From everything I hear, Alshon will be ready to go. He’s the best player on either team, so I rate Texas as a solid favorites in this one.

 

 

In mixed doubles, Ignatowich and Rohrabacher team up. If they are down 2-0 after gender doubles, then you have to play them against Alshon/Wright. If it is 1-1 after gender doubles (or if DC leads 2-0), then I think the smart play is to have Ignatowich/Rohrabacher play Duong/Pisnik. Alshon/Wright will be a modest favorite over Ignatowich/Rohrabacher and a solid favorite against Bar/Glozman. Duong/Pisnik are even against Bar/Glozman but are an underdog against Ignatowich/Rorhabacher.

 

I think DC will have trouble winning 3-1 or 4-0. So, I think their best strategy is to try to get to 2-2 and a Dreambreaker. Their ability to choose the matchups will help here. If it does get to a Dreambreaker, it will be very competitive. Duong and Alshon are both better singles players than Ignatowich and Bar, but Rohrabacher and Glozman have the advantage over Wright and Pisnik. I think Texas has more talent overall, so DC should be trying to win this by winning the close matches and any Dreambreakers.

 

Prediction: If Texas is at full strength, they win 2-0.

 

If we have learned anything from the MLP regular season, it is that any team can beat any other team. While I see Dallas and Texas moving on, they are at best small favorites over New York and DC, so anything can happen.

Get your tickets now, or plan on tuning in beginning Saturday.

 

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