DALLAS, TX - There are eight MLP regular season events in 2024. Four have now been completed. That would normally tell us we are at the halfway point in the season, except some teams have played more matches than others. Every MLP team plays 23 matches. But, by coincidence, the three top teams, St. Louis, Dallas, and Texas, have all played more matches than any other team. They therefore lead in both points per match, but also total points, by a wide margin.

 

Six teams will make the playoffs. The top two will get a bye. Getting a bye is of huge importance. The top 6-7 teams are fairly even, and anyone can beat anyone in one match. Thus, if a team gets a bye, they only need to beat two teams to win the final. Without a bye, a team has to win three matches, which is considerably more difficult. Here’s a review of all 12 teams, where they stand, and how they have performed to this point.

 

12. Utah (9 points in 13 matches). Utah spent by far the least money in the auction draft and that has put them behind the eight ball all season. They were the consensus weakest team on paper coming out of the draft and so far that prediction has proven true. They have no star to anchor the team. Tyler Loong has been steady; acquiring Connor Garnett has improved them. Callie Smith has been so-so; Alix Truong played poorly at the start but has improved as the season has gone on. They are still a weak team but not a pushover. They can play spoiler. Chance to make the playoffs: zero

 

 

11. Columbus (10 points in 13 matches). Columbus has just been dysfunctional from the start. Riley Newman has played ok, but is not carrying the team as his high draft status would demand. The women on the team have been a disaster, even after a trade. None of the women are comfortable on the left side; their performance shows picking a right side woman high is likely a mistake. Chance to make the playoffs: zero

 

10. Arizona (12 points in 13 matches). Arizona is perhaps the most disappointing team. The team is built around Andrei Daescu and Dylan Frazier, but they have a mediocre record in men’s doubles. When they lose men’s doubles, they have little chance to win. Frazier has not played well on the left in mixed, and his 9-17 record is not what you expect from a very high draft choice. Their record shows the danger of picking a right side male player high. Chance to make the playoffs: 10-1

 

9. Orlando (13 points in 12 matches). Orlando has the most talent of any team in terms of auction dollars spent. But, they have battled injuries and the luck factor. When all four players are at 100% they can beat anyone, as their 3-1 victory over Dallas in KC shows. They are handicapped by having mistakenly drafted two right side women. But, they are a solid team and will if nothing else be a spoiler to teams fighting for playoff position. Chance to make the playoffs: 3-1

 

 

8. Carolina (12 points in 11 matches). Carolina has been plagued by low energy. Their performance shows how team energy is so important at MLP. Ben Johns has played poorly by his standards. Carolina’s women have ranked in the bottom 10 all year. Collin Johns seeming to pout at every match has not helped. It is hard to ever count out a Ben Johns team. They do have more than half their matches left to play, so a run is theoretically possible. But the low energy issue remains. Chance to make the playoffs: 3-1

 

7. LA (14 points in 12 matches). LA is another team that has battled a significant injury. Thomas Wilson has missed most of the year and no word on when or if he will be back. Blaine Hovenier has given his all filling in, but he is 6-12. Jade Kawamoto has played well, but Catherine Parenteau and Hunter Johnson have just been so-so. This team feels like it is going downhill, unless somehow Wilson can come back and save the day. They are only one spot out of the playoffs, but it feels much worse. They look like a team that will fade and finish 10th. Chance to make the playoffs: 5-1

 

6. DC (22 points in 12 matches). DC is in the last playoff slot, but they are playing well and have momentum. They are 8 points clear of LA, but the gap feels even bigger. I think there is a better chance DC could get a bye than than they miss the playoffs. Picking up Vivian Glozman changed their season. She is a power player and a good fit with Rachel Rohrabacher. It is no coincidence that Rohrabacher’s record has greatly improved since Glozman was picked up. James Ignatowich has played fine, and Dekel Bar has outplayed his draft position. This is now a balanced team that no one will want to face in the playoffs. Chance to win it all: 10%

 

 

5. New York (24 points in 13 matches). I underestimated NY’s chances at the beginning of the year, but this remains a flawed team. The women’s doubles team of Lea Jansen and Jackie Kawamoto have saved them. Kawamoto is 17-9 and Jansen is 16-10. CJ Klinger is 11-15 and Jack Sock sits 47th out of 54 players, by far the worst performance of any first round draft choice. If one team in the top six gets caught from behind and knocked out of a playoff slot, it will be NY. Chance to make the playoffs: 50-50. Chance to win it all: 2%

 

4. New Jersey (17 points in 9 events). NJ has played well, and has played the fewest matches. They have a fairly easy schedule to go, so they have the greatest variability as to where they may finish. They have an outside chance at a playoff bye. Anna Leigh Waters has been dominant, sitting atop the player standings at 16-2. Zane Navratil brings excellent energy and leadership, but his 3-15 record needs to improve. This team has lived off Dreambreaker wins. Can they keep that up? Chance to win it all: 15%

 

3. Texas (35 points in 18 matches). Texas has been a balanced team, with their women being excellent. Tina Pisnik is 26-10 and Etta Wright is 23-13. Christian Alshon has been very steady. An early move to pick up Quang Duong now looks smart, as Duong has gone 16-12, which is a good record for a waiver pickup. They probably need at least 10-12 points in their last 5 matches to secure a bye; difficult but not impossible. Chance to win it all: 17%

 

 

2. Dallas (37 points in 18 matches). Dallas has been consistently inconsistent. At their best, they put out four solid doubles teams and a very good Dreambreaker squad. At their worst, they lose a lot of close games and can lose to anyone. JW Johnson is 27-9 and has been rock solid. Jorja Johnson and Augie Ge have been very good. Tyra Black has been decent but can be shaky in close matches. This team will likely go as Tyra goes; if she is solid, they can win it all; if she breaks down even a little in close matches, they will lose. They need about 10 points in the last 5 matches to secure a bye. If they get a bye, they can win it all. If they don’t get a bye, I don’t think they can play three consecutive matches at the high level needed to win. Chance to win it all: 25%

 

1. St. Louis (38 points in 18 matches). St. Louis leads the league in team energy and that has translated to the lead at this point. Anna Bright is once again an MLP star, with a 28-8 record. Hayden Patriquin should have been a higher pick. Gabe Tardio has been adequate, and he can play better. Kate Fahey has outplayed her draft position, but still has limitations. Dallas and Texas have more talent than St. Louis, but as we have seen before, talent alone does not win an MLP championship. St. Louis, like Dallas and Texas, needs and wants a bye. They probably need about 9 points in their last 5 matches to get a bye. Chances to win it all: 28%

 

As mentioned, six teams make the playoffs. The top two get a bye. The third place team will choose their first round opponent. At this point, the best five teams are STL, Dal, Tex, DC, and NJ. If NY grabs the sixth playoff spot, the third place team will pick NY to play, even if NY finishes 4th or 5th. After the first round of the playoffs, the first seed will choose who they want to play. If the playoffs started today, Texas as the 3 seed would pick NY to play; NJ would play DC. St. Louis as the 1 seed would choose who to play from the two winners; likely the NJ/DC winner. That would leave Texas to play Dallas. As you can tell from this scenario, winning the MLP finals will be hugely difficult; whoever wins it, will deserve it.

 

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